Shouldn't the Results of the Kurdish Referendum be Respected?

Erbil, three days before the referendum, September 22. Image source: Asbarez

Iraqi Kurds overwhelmingly backed independence on September 25, 2017 defying neighboring countries that were on tenterhooks. As long as a referendum hasn't been manipulated by foreign powers or the local establishment, it must be viewed as the wishes of the indigenous majority. The recent Kurdish referendum wasn't gerrymandered and yet showed a yearning for independence with 92% in favor of seceding. Out of 3 million valid ballots, 2.9 million voted 'yes' and the naysayers only 224,464.

An old Kurdish man walks in the old city of Erbil, Iraq September 20, 2017. REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah

Iraq's real concern is the northern city of Kirkuk with its massive oil wealth. Oil reserves worth 10 million barrels lie around Kirkuk. That would be over 40% of Iraq's oil and 6% of the world's. Although Kirkuk is located slightly outside the Kurdish region, according to the Iraqi census of 1957, 1977 and 1997 Kurds were the biggest ethnic group in Kirkuk until Saddam Hussain began to displace them. That didn't stop the Kurds from having a historical claim on Kirkuk. According to Jalal Talabani, Kirkuk is the same to the Kurds as Jerusalem is to the Palestinians. Will the future of Kirkuk be decided by a "Kirxit?" That would be the peaceful way and Baghdad’s only strategy to control Kirkuk is through negotiation .... or fighting. Baghdad has already threatened to send troops to Kirkuk. Bad idea! The Muslim world does NOT need any more infighting. Kurds are convinced that an independent Kurdistan will greatly help to improve ties between the Kurds and all its neighbors. Kurdish leaders have confirmed they intend to negotiate peacefully with Baghdad.

The United States, despite its alliance with the Kurds, refused to offer support to the Kurds for this referendum. As usual, US never respects the peoples' will if that threatens the disruption of traditional business dealings involving oil. It also debunks the version that Kurdish referendum in Iraq was planned by US and Israel. Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has categorically stated the US does not recognize the results of the polls.

Israel may have been secretly supportive of an independent Kurdistan, presuming it would render Iraq weaker and also welcoming the apprehension arising in Turkey and Iran. But Israel's support is emblematic, not practical. A brutally egocentric nation like Israel would never go far enough to play a practical role in supporting an event like the Kurdish independence. Though Turkey has had a non-secular government since over a decade, it's discreet build-up of rapprochement with Israel has been satisfactory for both countries and Israel wouldn't want to take any risks to ruin that by supporting the Kurds. At the end of the day, Ankara is higher on Israel's list of priorities than Erbil. After the defeat of ISIL in Iraq and Syria, Israel's fear is a stronger Iran in the near future, not a stronger Kurdistan. Weeks ago some analysts thought that an independent Kurdistan could serve as a buffer between Iran and Israel and the latter may find that a positive change. Not really. Israel's plan for Iran is far more destructive than the mere placement of a buffer. On the contrary, fractious relation between Iraq and the Kurds would be far more beneficial for Israel, whereas a post-referendum Kurdistan offers greater chances of improved relations between Massoud Barazani and Haider Abadi on the longer term.

Centuries old Erbil Citadel, major tourist attraction. Image source Business Insider.

Kurdish officials have rejected Israel's figurative backing for the referendum as "unsolicited and damaging." No doubt Kurds have a long history as opportunists. An unconfirmed report says over one hundred thousand Kurdish Jews are living in Israel and communicating with the Kurdish belt for two decades. This has not been proven but it isn't impossible either. Whether or not such stories are true, the fact is that the Kurds along the regional belt stretching across Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran do have the right to decide their future without pressure or interference from their respective central governments and foreign entities. Needless to say, US support for Syrian Kurds is a separate story only aimed at destabilizing the government of Bashar al-Assad.

Sunni Muslims in Iraq have expressed their support for the Kurds. But the Arab League has cautiously disapproved on grounds of "disunity" without mentioning what 'unity' it expects to preserve in the war-ravaged territories of Iraq and Syria.

There is little doubt that since the colonial era the Kurds have been walking on a rocky road. The Kurdish belt was partitioned into four soon after WWI. Ever since they have been a marginalized lot, too often targeted with violence and discrimination. During the reign of Mostafa Kemal in Turkey, speaking the Kurdish language in public could get them lengthy prison sentences. Iranian Kurds were completely ignored throughout the rule of the Shah. After the revolution, they were promised autonomy but the Kurds complain that post-revolution Iran didn't keep many of its promises. It was toughest in Iraq where Kurds faced mandatory assimilation known as the "Arabization campaign" in northern Iraq. The autonomy granted to them in 1970 by Saddam's government lasted for just a few years until the mid 1970s. Saddam Hussain wasn't the first to use poison gas on the Kurds. Before Saddam it was the British PM, Winston Churchill, who decided to gas the Kurds when he faced resistance. "I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes [to] spread a lively terror," were Churchill's words. Comparatively Syrian Kurds enjoyed greater rights but were wary and disillusioned watching the plight of their Kurdish brethren in Turkey, Iraq and Iran. Certainly they did use the Syrian war as an opportunity to pursue their goal and did end up betraying Bashar al-Assad.

Qayseri market, and old souq in Erbil near the Citadel. Image source Almay

It's unclear at the moment what benefit the governments of Iraq, Iran and Turkey would derive by taking steps to ostracize the Kurds, including banning flights from Iraq to Erbil, other than punishing the Kurds for exercising their right to decide their future. It's a politically sleazy attitude, much the same as Israel ostracizing Hamas for winning the polls in 2006, or India disallowing a referendum in occupied Kashmir for fear of losing.

Erbil International Airport. Image source Business Insider