Catching up on events, how much of that tough and tragic scenario has changed? Has the outwardly different Saudi policy towards Syria been helpful for Bashar al-Assad?
Russia and Iran are both keen in having the major role rehabilitating Syria. However, Russian presence in Syria is not solely for the purpose of eradicating foreign terrorists. Putin is just as interested in alleviating Israel's anxiety over the presence of HezbAllah and Iran in Syria. Russian presence in Syria is comforting for Israel, though despite that Israel hasn't refrained from frequently bombing Syrian territory, unprovoked, since the past several years during the war.
Deadlock
between Syrian government and SDF continues.
SDF mostly comprises of Kurdish fighters with headquarters at Qamishli,
northern Syria. Their prime opponents
are the AQ factions of ISIS, Nusra Front and Turkish backed Syrian fighters. It’s ironic that while these terrorist factions are also the opponents
of the Syrian government, SDF isn’t on good terms with the Syrian
government which does not recognize SDF as an independent entity within Syria
and wants its fighters to integrate with the Syrian Army. SDF is adamant not to join the Syrian Army
until there’s a new constitution in Syria granting SDF an autonomous
status. Until then SDF refuses to
cooperate with the government as well as its Russian allies. At the moment SDF is sitting on large swathes
of land in northern Syria. An oil deal
signed between SDF and an American company in August 2020 to rob Syrian oil
from SDF controlled northern Syria under protection of American forces has particularly angered the Syrian government. Western sanctions have already taken a
nasty toll on Syria’s energy industry.
Additionally, systematic U.S. theft of Syria’s oil with SDF cooperation
has wreaked the government’s relations with SDF beyond reconciliation any time
soon.
The
so-called and perpetually disorganized smaller group of 'Free Syrian Army'
which claimed to be the military wing of the Syrian opposition has now largely
broken up. Many of them have formed a group called “Syrian National Army”
claiming to be partners of Turkish forces and in the official payroll of the
Turkish government. This information has neither been confirmed nor
verified, though they are definitely allied with the Turkish forces occupying
parts of Syria.
With the backing of Turkey, Idlib province in north-eastern
Syria is still under occupation and the last stand for the opposition. At
least half of them are foreign terrorist fighters or AQ affiliates. Idlib
is also quite full of Turkish troops. Trapped between an ‘assortment’ of
relentless combatants - each side struggling to achieve its own goal - are
millions of Syrian civilians (mostly women, children and elderly) who are
facing indescribable hardships with no accommodation, no food, no water, no
medication and no doctors. Syrians who had fled fighting in other parts
of northern Syria are also among the residents of Idlib, making the
humanitarian crisis enormous. Those who have thus far survived the
fighting and destruction are leading nomadic lives. Neither the Syrian
government nor the Turkish government nor the Russians seem to have the
inclination nor resources to facilitate matters for the suffering civilians of
Idlib who are left with no choice but to face the situation on the
ground. Countless civilian lives have been lost either because of
botched attacks by fighting forces or starvation or illnesses including the
scourge of Covid-19.
Terrorists
of ISIS are popping up again in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor regions of Syria after big
claims by the Trump administration that they had been “wiped out.” It’s
an ancient macabre approach of the U.S. to keep menacing killers in ‘comfort
care’ only to release them when the Americans consider it right.
As recently reported from Beirut for instance, Syrian Army suffered huge losses
near the Raqqa-Homs border after it was ambushed by IS terrorists in the third
week of September.
Turkey was on great terms with KSA until King Abdullah's rule. After his death, Erdogan's relations with the kingdom have soured mainly because of MbS' domineering stance. After the grisly murder of Jamal Khashoggi, matters between Ankara and Riyadh got still worse.
For Syria, Abdullah's death has been a relief. Though neither MbS nor his father have shown eagerness to stop their mayhem in Yemen, they've been wanting to distance themselves from the quagmire in Syria. Apparently the Kingdom doesn’t see it as beneficial for Saudi security and economy. Late Abdullah was pro AQ and anti MB. Present King Salman and his son are interested in neither, in fact prefer to weaken MB and thus the close Saudi ties with Egypt's Sisi. But despite Abdullah's death being a relief for Syria, Saudi-Syrian links don't run straight. They are complex.
History tells us that Syrians never had great relations with the Saudis. While on the other hand, until 2010 Assad and Erdogan were close friends. But things between Syria and Erdogan's Turkey have changed beyond imagination since 2011 for which Erdogan is squarely responsible as the initiator. Considering all that has happened in the past nine years, Syria would prefer to mend its political fences with the Kingdom rather than Turkey. Parts of Syria in the north – Afrin, Tal Abyad, Ras al-Ain - east of Euphrates River have been occupied by Turkey with no promises nor plans to leave any time soon. Idlib province in northern Syria is completely under opposition control with Turkish assistance.
Until the time of late Abdullah al-Saud, the Saudi kingdom was the top financier of AlQaeda terrorists in Syria and also a training centre for foreign fighters sent to Syria. At the moment despite lack of political favors to Syria, it's not Saudi Arabia that’s illegally occupying Syrian territories. But Turkey is. In case of a meeting or a dialogue, it would understandably be easier for Syria to work with Saudi Arabia than Turkey. Taking into account Turkey's past support of ISIS and Al-Nusra Front and its present backing of Muslim Brotherhood with all its destructive consequences and tremendous bloodshed, forget handshakes, but even a distant face-to-face meeting between Erdogan and Assad is unimaginable probably forever. On the other hand, despite MbS' despotism and intolerance as the kingdom's de facto leader, there's no negative history between him and Assad. They have never met, and unlike Erdogan, Assad would personally view MbS not responsible for the invasion and bloodshed in Syria.
However, in view of Saudi Arabia's covert relations with Israel that have gotten stronger since the death of Abdullah al-Saud, Saudi-Syria relations don't end right here. As already alluded, they are knotty with no easy fixes. Though KSA doesn't want Turkey (Syria's enemy) to benefit in Syria, it doesn't want Iranian influence in Syria either. Assad would agree with the former strategy but not the latter. Syria needs Iran and HezbAllah, and MbS (as an Israeli ally) would hate to even hear of the Axis of Resistance.
Furthermore, to balance Saudi-Israeli friendship, MbS has stated that he favors Trump's decision to keep US troops in Syria. In other words, MbS endorses US occupation of Syria. But for Assad and his resistance allies, there's little to choose between Turkish or US occupations of Syria. Both must end.
Also, as an ally of Israel, Saudi Arabia must officially remain in favor of the 'Syrian opposition' otherwise stakes could be high for the Kingdom politically. This issue could intensify from the Saudi side as the Prince apparently feels more committed to appease the Zionist state compared to his father. WSJ recently reported of a 'disagreement' between the Prince and the King over 'normalization.' If true, it may only re-confirm the father's figurehead status and the self-willed son as the de facto ruler. At the same time it’s also commonly assumed that despite Saudi Arabia seen as the central power in the oil rich gulf region, this time MbS seems to be the one influenced by UAE’s Bin Zayed as his mentor of sorts. That's a moot point but could be true as MbS lacks experience and he doesn’t have too many people to turn to for advise in his extended family. His father was never regarded as the brightest among the “Sudairi Seven” and now it’s widely believed he suffers from borderline dementia.
Nearly two years ago some analysts had opined that Saudis were willing to get involved again in Syria, a bit differently than in the past. The Kingdom's desire to politically re-engage with Syria in 2018 was an attempt to diminish the influence of Iran and HezbAllah within Syrian territory. Not only that, but Turkey's implicit relations (both trade and political) with Iran made Saudi Arabia fearful of the possibility of renewed relations between Ankara and Damascus via Tehran which may lead to futher consolidating Turkey's regional power. And Turkey's huge support for Muslim Brotherhood is another damper for the Kingdom. However, considering the very acrimonious political split between Erdogan and Assad, any such development between Ankara and Damascus brokered by Iran (or any other party) is next to impossible in the foreseeable future, and Saudi apprehension is largely unfounded.
In the process, Saudi Arabia's gesture of better
relations with Syria had also encouraged its allies to politically
mobilize on the Syrian front in 2018 and 2019. The recently ousted
Sudanese leader, Omar al-Bashir visited
Syria and met Assad in December 2018. Earlier the same year, Bahraini FM
met his Syrian counterpart in the United Nations. Also in December 2018,
UAE re-opened its embassy in Damascus. Despite supporting
foreign fighters in Syria and severing ties with Damascus in 2011, Jordan began
working on re-establishing diplomatic links with Syria in mid 2019. The sudden
comparatively amicable gesture by the Saudis towards Syria was a green light for Sudan,
Bahrain, UAE and Jordan. But these moves have been slow and restrained, walking
on eggshells! The U.S. has constantly been pressuring the gulf Arab
states including Saudi Arabia to continue isolating Syria from the
international community. Needless to mention, commitment of gulf Arab countries to U.S. and Israel far exceeds their concern for
Syria. Moreover as stated, Saudi Arabia's purpose for reconnecting with
Syria has been nothing beyond curbing Iranian influence and Syria's dependency
on Iran, consequently weakening the Axis of Resistance which was one of the prime
reasons for U.S., U.K. and EU to start the invasion of Syria through their
proxies in 2011. Despite the change of
policies, Saudi Arabia’s concern for Syria’s well-being can
go only so far. Certainly not much.
Though the fervor of war appears
quieter, it’s far from over and with some additional woes. Syria continues to fight to regain her lost sovereignty
in the midst of a global pandemic.