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IN THE NAME OF ALLAH, THE BENEFICENT, THE MERCIFUL
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"O you who believe! Be careful of your duty to Allah, and be with the truthful." [Noble Quran 9:119]

"If you obeyed most of those on earth they would mislead you far from Allah's way." [Noble Quran 6:116]

Return to the QURAN only - the complete and final STAND-ALONE Divine Message which also contains the authentic sunnah of the beloved Prophet Muhammad (SAAW)

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I bear witness that NONE is worthy of worship except ALLAH, He has NO partner nor partners, and I bear witness that Muhammad is the slave and Final Messenger of Allah.

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Saturday, June 7, 2014

Polls May 2014 Egypt: All pointers indicate Abdel Fateh Sissi would have still won otherwise


As per schedule, elections were held in Egypt on May 26 / 27 of 2014.  The low turnout wasn't  exclusively a result of political apathy with the thought of Sissi's  victory a foregone conclusion. 

Egypt has a population of 85 million with at least 40 million  eligible voters.  Muslim Brotherhood (MB) members and activists are approximately 1 million.   MB supporters among the general public would make up a maximum of 2  million and the MB block a total of around 3 million in a  population of 85 million - a comparatively small  segment. 

That leaves an overwhelming 82 million (approximately) who are not in the MB block.

In July  2013, the Egyptians were divided into two distinctive groups - anti and  pro MB.  The far  larger majority wanted MB out, all of whom flooded the streets of the  major cities of Egypt providing enough mandate to their army to remove  Mohamed Morsi and arrange for  re-elections. 

During the polls in the end of May 2014, that overwhelming majority was no more a monolith.  They had diverse political ideologies which included the supporters of  Abdel Fateh Sissi  and other political figures as well.  Sissi still had  greater support than his predecessor or anyone from the Brotherhood front, but it wasn't the same as during the uprising of 2013 .. obviously.  What happened in July  2013 was a popular revolt against the ruling party; what took place in May 2014 were elections.  That difference has passed unperceived by many. 

On July 2012 after Egypt's phoney  'revolution' of March 2011 with the involvement / intervention of the United States in  favor of Muslim Brotherhood that eventually toppled Hosni Mubarak, at  least 11 candidates contested the polls.  In May 2014 there were only  two candidates, one of them Abdel Fateh Sissi.  That explains why the  recent turnout in 2014  was 44% compared to 52% in 2012.  The difference construes that out of  40 million  Egyptians as eligible voters, approximately 18 million came out to vote  and a little over 17 million supported Sissi which gave him a landslide  victory of 93%.   Those 17 million plus who voted for him were his staunch  supporters as manifested by all reports. 


As  a standard occurrence in all polls even when the turnout is high, the  number of voters who come out to cast their votes are a little less  than the official number of voters estimated, sometimes considerably  less.  If the recent elections in Egypt had shown a big turnout, it would  unlikely be more than 35 million at the maximum.  With that in view, if a  few  more presidential candidates were in the race resulting in a greater  participation of voters, obviously the former General would not have won  by as large a   majority but gauging from the number of votes he got, he would have still been the winner by a narrower margin.
 

Abdel Fateh Sissi didn't make the wisest decision participating in the polls  almost unopposed.  Even if he had won by a smaller majority with more opponents in the event, it would have heightened his  credibility both at home and abroad.  Needlessly, he became too wary of a situation  that actually held very little or no threat for him nor for Egyptian voters opposed to radicalism. 

Nonetheless, he seems to be Egypt's best choice at present and under the circumstances.  Only time will speak of the future as events and the country's policies unfold.

Best wishes for the former General.  Allah bless.



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